Guess who’s back? Back again. Biden’s back! Tell a friend. 

On Apr. 25, President Joe Biden announced that he would once again be running for president in 2024. His emotionally-charged reelection video started with striking videos of the Capitol riots and pro-abortion protesters. After these, he proclaimed that “…around the country, MAGA extremists are lining up to take on those bedrock freedoms. Cutting Social Security that you’ve paid for your entire life while cutting taxes for the very wealthy. Dictating what health care decisions women can make, banning books and telling people who they can love. All while making it more difficult for you to be able to vote.” 

These statements allowed Biden to conclude that we are still in “a battle for the soul of America.” In his closing remarks, he asserted that “every generation of Americans have faced a moment when they have to defend democracy” and “stand up for our personal freedom.” 

Biden’s announcement is extremely important for 2024 as only ten incumbent U.S. Presidents have not been re-elected for their second term. What does this mean? It means that, right out of the gate, Biden has a strong chance of winning in 2024. But nothing is absolute and only time will time. 

It is also important to note that, historically, presidential job approval is related to reelection. Gallup notes three critical aspects of the relationship between presidential job approval and reelection: 50% or higher approval makes the president a safe bet for reelection. The two presidents with approval ratings below 40% lost and approval ratings have not changed much between June and Election Day. 

Moreover, this relationship has proven to be accurate. For instance, Trump had “approval ratings in the mid-to-upper 40% range,” which indicated that his election was uncertain. This article, released in May 2020, yet this prediction turned out to be correct as Trump was not re-elected. 

Looking at Biden, those three points tell an important story. First, with a job approval rating of 40% as of March 2023, Biden is not a safe bet for reelection. Second, his rating is not below 40% so, historically, he most likely won’t lose. Lastly, since it is only April, the rating can still increase or decrease and change the prediction. 

Matt Fisher ‘24, political science major at John Carroll University stated, “I voted for Biden in 2020, but I was a little disappointed that the Democratic Party was unable to produce any feasible younger candidates.” Fisher also remarked that “Biden isn’t a bad guy, but I think a lot of people, myself included, are getting sick of the gerontocracy.” 

However, nothing is certain, but Biden will likely get the Democratic nomination. Time states that only five Presidents have not received their party’s nomination when running for election and all of these denials occurred in the 19th century. An incumbent has not lost a party primary in modern U.S. history.